I see the thrilling
Martingale strategy being
used a lot in casinos, though undoubtably many Roulette players use when
betting online too.
If you’ve ever used the Martingale strategy, you’ll know it
involves doubling down on your wagers, chasing the excitement of trying to
secure a one-unit profit. For example, bet RM10 and win, return is RM20 thus
the one unit is RM10. Lose RM10 and double down betting aOf course, many
Roulette players continue to double down when losing.
The experience begins when Roulette players notice an
opportunity to bet on an even money chance outcome that they hope will end a
streak.
Of the three outside 1:1 options, Red/Black, Odd/Even,
High/Low, most players tend to bet on the Red or Black options. I think it’s
the visual attraction of seeing a streak of one colour that catches their
attention as they get ready to implement a
popular Roulette strategy, such
as the Martingale.
THE MARTINGALE STRATEGY IN ACTION
Roulette players using the Martingale strategy lookout for a
streak of at least six Reds or Blacks. However, a sense of urgency tends to
begin when a run of ten consecutive same colour outcomes is seen. Players will
then bet AGAINST that streak based on the theory, the longer the streak, the
more likely the next outcome will be an opposite one that will end the streak.
So, when they lose at their first attempt they continue to double down until
they win or run out of money.
The more occasions you bet hoping for a streak to be broken
using the Martingale strategy the more likely it is that you’ll encounter a
streak long enough to wipe out your
casino bankroll. If your first
bet results in an outcome that ends a streak, then you’ll double your wager. If
you lose and continue to double down trying up to six times, you’ll be entering
the danger zone where the build-up of risk versus reward in my view just isn’t
worth continuing.
Example:
1st bet 1 unit to win 1 (total outlay 1 unit)
2nd bet 2 units to win 1 (total outlay 3 units)
3rd bet 4 units to win 1 (total outlay 7 units)
4th bet 8 units to win 1 (total outlay 15 units)
5th bet 16 units to win 1 (total outlay 31 units)
6th bet 32 units to win 1 (total outlay 63 units)
The problem with most Roulette players who get into the Martingale
bubble is they don’t want to stop. The adrenaline kicks in and the prevalent
question in the minds of players asks, what if the next outcome happens to be
the one that ends the streak? They don’t want to lose out on recovering their
increasing outlay and the prize; that small one-unit profit. It’s a mixed
emotion of excitement, fear and a drive to stay in the game, betting until the
end, whether all is lost or little gained. Though of course a win feels big
given that the true reward isn’t the one unit but the recovery of their total
outlay.
Certainly, this isn’t my cup of tea of a
Roulette system, but it got me
wondering whether there’s a way of tweaking the Martingale so that
the risk can be minimised and consequently the reward secured sooner? I believe
I’ve developed a method that improves on the Martingale approach. I write
approach because this really is the key to solving what I see as the
Martingale problem.
MARTINGALE STRATEGY PROS AND CONS
Long streaks can lead to Roulette player’s bankrolls being
wiped out. Even if they add more funds to top up their dwindling bankrolls the
Martingale strategy can prove to be totally brutal and is the casinos best
friend. Most players will either run out of money or in rare cases want to
place a wagers that surpass the casino’s maximum betting limit.
It’s not uncommon for casinos to recoded streaks of 20x plus
of the same colour occurring in a row. In 1943 a casino in America recorded Red
occurring 32 times in a row. I once saw 25x Reds occur in a row on
live online Roulette and I
recall there had been a dealer change during that streak.
On the other hand, if you have deep pockets and can afford
to take the chance to secure a one-unit win, over the long term you’re more
likely to succeed given that most streaks don’t end up being long ones.
However, there are two aspects to this assumption.
The first is that the shorter the streak (under six in a
row) the more likely it is that the streak will end. And longer streaks (ten or
more in a row) is a strong indication that the streak may prove to be a long
one.
TIP #1
It thus follows that you should avoid betting when you see a
long streak. Therefore, since shorter streaks are unlikely to form into a long
streak you’ll win at more attempts when betting to see streaks end.
TIP #2
If you follow the advice in tip 1, it’s a good idea to have
a stop loss just in case the streak does continue. If you make three
attempts in a row, from say the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th stage of a streak and
stop you’ll only be losing seven units. E.g. bet 1 lose, bet 2 lose, bet 4
lose: total wagered =7
It’s better to lose seven units than to -63 or more units
should you continue to double down.
For example:
Let’s say you bet to see a streak end from a run of 3 in a
row. You’d be trying three times starting from the 4th outcome. You place 1 unit
(whatever amount that maybe for instance RM10), as your first bet for the 4th
outcome following the run of 3 wins and if the streak ends, you would’ve gained
your one unit win thereby recovering your RM10 plus winning RM10.
If you lose you’d place a RM20 bet prior to the 5th outcome.
If you win you’ll be paid RM40 whereby deducting the RM30 that is your total
outlay, you’d be winning RM10. If you lose you would try one more time, this
time wagering RM40 and a win will pay RM80 of which RM70 was your total outlay
thus you’d be winning RM10.
But if you lose RM70 and stop trying you’d only be 7 wins
away from recovering your losses which is better than had you gone on trying
and lost a lot more.
TABONE'S TWEAK OF THE MARTINGALE STRATEGY
Earlier in this article I wrote that my method involves a
different approach to the Martingale strategy. At whatever stage of a streak
you begin to bet against it continuing you should be aware that the Martingale
strategy in an of itself doesn’t suggest when or where you should bet. The
assumption is that a Roulette player bets against a streak by doubling his or
her wagers upon each loss. But when it doesn’t work out before you’ve run out
of money or exceeded a casino’s maximum bet limit the key to winning
remains in the decisions on what you bet on.
When a Roulette player sees a streak of Blacks, my tweak of
the Martingale maintains the doubling down element, however if my first bet on
Red results in a loss, I’m going to assume that the streak will continue
therefore my next bet will be on Black. If my assumption is correct, I win upon
my second attempt not to see the streak end but to, if you like hedge my bet
just in case I’m wrong and it continues.
In the worst-case scenario where my 2nd bet fails, and the
result is Red I’ve only lost three units having doubled down on my first wager.
I believe I’m in a stronger position than the Roulette player who continues to
bet against the streak by solely backing the other option.
My approach has more power when a possible streak lingers at
the point of not knowing the next outcome. For me 3-in-a-row is the point at
which streaks will either continue or not.
Either BBBR or BBBB clearly the former pattern
ending in a R outcome has gone in the direction that ends the
possibility of a streak forming, whereas the latter pattern has clearly
favoured the formation of a streak.
If the streak continues as such BBBB assuming I lose
upon the 4th Black outcome when betting on Red then my next bet will
therefore be Black, and I’d win if the streak of Blacks continues BBB (this
4th outcome I bet Red but the outcome was B indicating the likelihood that the
streak might continue) (this 5th outcome I bet Black and won) B.
I’m only going to lose, if and only if, the forming streak
ends upon the 5th outcome like so BBBBR. But I’d rather lose twice which
involves a single unit and a doubling of my unit (total three units lost) than
continuing to double my wagers hoping that a streak ends by only betting on the
opposite colour of it.
THE STRUCTURE OF BETS LEADING TO A WIN OR LOSS
Using my tweak of the Martingale strategy sees a Roulette
player betting only twice when trying to profit from a streak. This means you
only stand to lose three units (1 and the double 2) therefore the risk it
controlled.
In using my teak of the Martingale strategy, the possible
outcomes are:
A win upon your first opposite bet.
BBB / you bet R if the result is R an opposite you win. If lost move on to the
next bet.
A win upon your second same type bet. If you lose you stop
betting.
BBB B / assuming you lost your first bet going opposite you now bet ‘same’ as
the streak, so B. If you win there will be 5x BBB BB
If you lose both attempts, you’re only losing 3 units and if you win upon your
first or second attempts, you’ll be gaining 1 unit. Thus, it’s a 1:1 bet on the
first attempt and risking 3 in total (first bet 1 and second bet 2) to win 1
unit upon your second attempt. Bet 2, win 4, less your 3 outlay = 1 winning
unit.
You have two chances to win versus both failing ending in a
loss.
To break even you’d need to win three times for every -3
lost but let’s not forget you have two chances to achieve a win with your first
bet being opposite should the streak end and your second bet being the same
type as the streak, should the streak continue.
The next time you consider using the Martingale strategy,
betting against a streak of the same colour shouting “Any Red number!” / “Any
Black number!” in the hope of recovering your previous wagers, let alone the
small profit you hope to gain, remind yourself of my approach to the Martingale
strategy.
